We score every roof we fly. Over the 30 days to 17 September 2026 we scored 18 of them, and the pattern in the results is sharp enough to be worth publishing: not one roof older than 3 years came back Good.
These are our own assessments, not a manufacturer's chart and not an industry average. Age along the bottom, score up the side, one dot per roof.
Nothing over six years old scored Good
Every roof under four years old came back between 91 and 100. The six-year roof scored 80. The eight-year roof scored 66. From eleven years on, every single one landed between 24 and 38 — Low or Critical.
That is a steeper picture than most homeowners expect. A roof at eleven years is not halfway through a gentle decline; in this sample it is already in the bottom half of the scale.
And the fall speeds up
From year three to year eight, these roofs lost roughly five points a year. From year eight to year eleven, closer to ten. The decline is not a straight line — it steepens.
That is exactly what the chemistry predicts. An asphalt shingle fails from the inside as the binder oxidises and stiffens, and the stiffer it gets the faster it cracks and sheds granules. The independent testing covers the mechanism; this is what it looks like on real roofs in North Texas and southern Oklahoma.
What we take from it
The useful window is earlier than people think. A roof at five or six years looks fine from the driveway and still scores well — and that is precisely when protecting it is cheap and effective. By the time a roof looks like it needs attention, our own numbers say it is usually somewhere in the thirties.
It also explains a conversation we have constantly. Homeowners are told their ten- or twelve-year-old roof needs replacing, and are surprised because it does not look that bad. Often it genuinely does need replacing — and sometimes it does not, which is the entire reason we measure instead of guessing. How the score works →
The caveats, plainly
- 18 roofs is a small sample. 13 of them had a roof age recorded, which is what the chart plots.
- Asphalt shingle only, across North Texas and southern Oklahoma.
- The newest roofs are newly built or newly replaced, which is why the top-left of the chart is crowded. They are not evidence that treatment produces a 100.
- These are the roofs people asked us to look at — not a random sample of roofs in the metroplex.
We will publish this again next month with a bigger number. The pattern is what matters, and one month of it is a hint rather than a finding.
What would your roof score?
A drone assessment gives you the number, the imagery behind it, and an honest answer either way — including that you do not need us yet.
